[
  {
    "id": "INDIA_BANKNIFTY_001",
    "status": "refuted",
    "logged_at": "2026-04-14T03:37:00.000000+00:00",
    "gap_id": "INDIA_BANKNIFTY",
    "title": "NSE BankNifty: 98:1 Settlement Gap at 2-Day Expiry — Tokenized Derivative Structural Fragility",
    "claim": "The NSE BankNifty weekly options contract has a gap_ratio of 98:1 with 2 days to expiry at the time of this log. The engine is reading delta_i=10.95 with flag ACTIVE_EXTRACTION on NSE_INDIA. The combination of near-expiry timing, maximum extraction flag, and 98:1 settlement gap means the BankNifty expiry event is the highest-pressure Indian market signal in the current engine cycle. A settlement anomaly at this expiry — or SEBI acknowledgment of the structural gap in tokenized derivative settlement — is the predicted outcome.",
    "falsifiable_condition": "NSE BankNifty expiry event produces a settlement anomaly (failed settlement, delayed margin call resolution, or circuit-breaker trigger attributable to settlement gap) OR SEBI publishes acknowledgment of tokenized derivative settlement gap within 60 days of this log date (2026-04-14).",
    "engine_signal": {
      "gap_score": 3.65,
      "gap_ratio": 98,
      "delta_i": 10.95,
      "settlement_leverage": 7.3,
      "days_to_expiry": 2,
      "flag": "ACTIVE_EXTRACTION",
      "curl_confirmed": true,
      "curl_confirmed_source": "liquidity_gap_detector internal flag — not independently verified by temporal_curl analysis",
      "overlay_entities": [
        "NSE_INDIA",
        "SEBI"
      ],
      "primary_entity": "NSE_INDIA"
    },
    "on_chain_proof": {
      "chain": "Base mainnet",
      "claim_id": 20,
      "block_number": 44673968,
      "tx_hash": "e94369954e8ef797c6ee56d7251a3330f458911a9a07452d60de30d042dc174d",
      "committed_at": "2026-04-14T03:28:01.597553+00:00",
      "vault_fingerprint": "913aab95f15701a8",
      "basescan_url": "https://basescan.org/tx/e94369954e8ef797c6ee56d7251a3330f458911a9a07452d60de30d042dc174d"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "confirmed_at": "2026-07-05T17:37:30+00:00",
      "source_url": "https://kaydeep0.github.io/eigenstate-research/track-record/#INDIA_BANKNIFTY_001",
      "note": "Host-executed FALSE. No new ~98:1 NSE settlement-gap event surfaced by deadline 2026-06-13. See Track Record."
    },
    "notes": "NSE BankNifty weekly options is one of the highest-volume derivative contracts in the world by number of contracts traded. The 2-day expiry window at log time creates maximum extraction pressure. Gap ratio 98:1 is near-maximum. The SEBI-administered settlement infrastructure has no current mechanism for tokenized derivative positions that settle against the Base block clock. This prediction has the shortest window (60 days) of the three logged to date. gap_score corrected from logged value of 9.8 to actual engine value of 3.65. Vault source: liquidity_gap_detector, two records timestamped 2026-04-14T03:26 and 03:27 UTC, vault fingerprints 8b52eec97d01a419 and c857e2eb8c727a09."
  },
  {
    "id": "FED_EXTRACTION_001",
    "status": "void",
    "logged_at": "2026-04-14T03:35:00.000000+00:00",
    "gap_id": "FED_EXTRACTION",
    "title": "Federal Reserve Active Extraction: Emergency Rate Action or $6T Balance Sheet Expansion Within 90 Days",
    "claim": "The engine is reading delta_i=30.0 on FED with flag ACTIVE_EXTRACTION. This is the maximum signal value observed in the current cycle. The Federal Reserve is in an extraction regime: the gap between its stated policy posture and the settlement pressure accumulating in the underlying field (kappa=0.4769, PT=0.488) is at maximum measurable divergence. A correction event — either an emergency rate action or a balance sheet expansion above $6T — is structurally required within 90 days.",
    "falsifiable_condition": "Federal Reserve announces emergency rate action (inter-meeting cut or hike) OR Federal Reserve balance sheet expands above $6T within 90 days of this log date (2026-04-14). Either event confirms the extraction signal. No action within 90 days refutes the prediction.",
    "engine_signal": {
      "gap_score": 10,
      "gap_ratio": 300,
      "delta_i": 30,
      "settlement_leverage_normalized": 10,
      "days_to_expiry": 90,
      "flag": "ACTIVE_EXTRACTION",
      "curl_confirmed": true,
      "vault_record_ref": "bc4a4af3",
      "overlay_entities": [
        "FED",
        "BLACKROCK",
        "SEC"
      ],
      "primary_entity": "FED"
    },
    "on_chain_proof": {
      "chain": "Base mainnet",
      "claim_id": 20,
      "block_number": 44673968,
      "tx_hash": "e94369954e8ef797c6ee56d7251a3330f458911a9a07452d60de30d042dc174d",
      "committed_at": "2026-04-14T03:28:01.597553+00:00",
      "vault_fingerprint": "913aab95f15701a8",
      "basescan_url": "https://basescan.org/tx/e94369954e8ef797c6ee56d7251a3330f458911a9a07452d60de30d042dc174d"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "confirmed_at": "2026-07-13T06:14:56+00:00",
      "source_url": "https://kaydeep0.github.io/eigenstate-research/track-record/#FED_EXTRACTION_001",
      "note": "Host A5 VOID. Rate leg FALSE; balance-sheet leg VOID (H.4.1 baseline already above $6T). Not a FALSE miss. See Track Record."
    },
    "notes": "Signal from vault record bc4a4af3. FED total_delta_i=45.03 across 3 records in current cycle. Peak record: delta_i=30.0. Maximum score. The kappa=0.4769 and PT=0.488 reading at log time represents a field that is near the hourglass waist — the system is at a transition point. FED's extraction behavior at this moment is the highest-conviction signal the engine currently holds."
  },
  {
    "id": "LIBOR_EQUIVALENT_001",
    "status": "pending",
    "logged_at": "2026-04-13T23:25:21.916180+00:00",
    "gap_id": "LIBOR_EQUIVALENT",
    "title": "$300 Trillion Structural Gap: SOFR Transition Left No Model",
    "claim": "The LIBOR/SOFR transition did not resolve the underlying benchmark fragility. The $300T derivatives market settles against SOFR using ISDA fallback protocol with no sovereign-backed rate model. This gap (ratio 300:1 against daily interbank volume) will surface as a pricing dislocation event during the next liquidity contraction.",
    "falsifiable_condition": "A SOFR-referenced instrument misprices or fails settlement during a liquidity stress event, triggering ISDA fallback invocation at scale. Alternatively: regulatory acknowledgment of the benchmark gap by FSOC, FSB, or BIS in a published report.",
    "engine_signal": {
      "gap_score": 10,
      "gap_ratio": 300,
      "delta_i": 30,
      "settlement_leverage_normalized": 10,
      "days_to_expiry": 1,
      "flag": "ACTIVE_EXTRACTION",
      "curl_confirmed": true,
      "expiry_schedule": "daily",
      "extraction_window": "Daily: SOFR published 08:00 ET by NY Fed. Derivatives settling against SOFR use ISDA fallback protocol.",
      "overlay_entities": [
        "FED",
        "BLACKROCK",
        "ONDO",
        "SEC"
      ],
      "primary_entity": "FED"
    },
    "on_chain_proof": {
      "chain": "Base mainnet",
      "claim_id": 10,
      "block_number": 44655585,
      "tx_hash": "8bbb3cd5d6e3dfb54a8f7fe957d0ae4e0f3a5ae52ba4e927aefa6808c781c017",
      "committed_at": "2026-04-13T17:15:16.295677+00:00",
      "vault_fingerprint": "a918a01b73e077eb",
      "basescan_url": "https://basescan.org/tx/8bbb3cd5d6e3dfb54a8f7fe957d0ae4e0f3a5ae52ba4e927aefa6808c781c017"
    },
    "confirmation": null,
    "notes": "First formal prediction logged to the tracker. Signal surfaced autonomously by engine cycle on 2026-04-13. Gap ratio 300:1 is the highest score in the LIBOR_EQUIVALENT detector — denominator is $1T daily interbank volume against $300T derivatives notional. The ISDA 2020 fallback protocol is the current \"fix\" — no published sovereign rate model replaces LIBOR's term structure."
  }
]