{ "schema": "eigenstate.pages_sot.v1", "sot_definition": "SoT (source of truth) for Host/Pages is the engine measurement state: workspace/HOST/state.json (κ, PT, parkash stamps), M1 coverage from the coverage ledger (m1_strict ∩ topology / 199), and the host predictions register for scored claims. Website tiles must bake from this stamp — not frozen marketing HTML.", "generated_at": "2026-08-02T17:03:32.633366+00:00", "sources": { "host_ref": "workspace/HOST/state.json", "host_updated_at": "2026-08-02T16:56:15.921951+00:00", "parkash_last_parkash_at": "2026-08-02T17:00:56.765771+00:00", "coverage_sot_stamped_at": "2026-08-02T17:00:56.765767+00:00", "coverage_basis": "primary_m1_wire_14", "data_ref": "geniusflow/data" }, "field": { "kappa": 0.3195, "protocol_truth": 0.005087, "PT": 0.005087, "G_external_cumulative": 84.11999999999998, "mode": "sahaj", "canonical_act_threshold": 0.618034 }, "coverage": { "m1_strict_n": 192, "m1_denominator": 199, "m1_strict_pct": 96.48, "m1_confirmed_n": 31, "headline": "192 / 199", "off_topology_m1_n": 2, "forbidden_denoms": [ 196, 197, 218, 222, 244 ] }, "vault_at_export": { "note": "cycle_vault_records.json is a trimmed working buffer. Per-entity counts here are vault@export rows — not M1 lifetime observations.", "total_rows": 64, "entities_with_rows": 41, "by_entity": { "PAXOS": 2, "JPMORGAN": 2, "TOKENIZED_TREASURY": 1, "ETHEREUM": 4, "CIRCLE": 2, "ONDO": 1, "COINBASE": 4, "BASE": 2, "FARCASTER": 1, "BLACKROCK": 1, "FIDELITY": 1, "RIPPLE": 1, "X": 1, "GITHUB_PRESENCE": 1, "US_JURISDICTION": 2, "BNY_MELLON": 2, "CANTON_NETWORK": 1, "DTCC": 1, "FCA": 1, "BAFIN": 1, "HKMA": 1, "JFSA": 1, "FED": 1, "OCC": 1, "CFTC": 1, "REG_D": 2, "REG_S": 2, "MICA": 1, "DORA": 1, "MICA_FULL_IMPLEMENTATION": 1, "TRAVEL_RULE": 1, "REG_A_PLUS": 1, "RING": 2, "CABLE": 3, "HIGHWAY": 2, "DEFI_AUDIENCE": 3, "CRYPTO_NATIVE_AUDIENCE": 2, "RWA_AUDIENCE": 3, "INSTITUTIONAL_CUSTODY_POOL": 1, "REGULATION_CLARITY_COMING": 1, "STABLECOIN_POOL": 1 } }, "entity_m1_obs_counts": { "CIRCLE": 146, "ETHEREUM": 90, "COINBASE": 59, "REG_D": 57, "SEC": 56, "US_JURISDICTION": 52, "DORA": 52, "MICA_FULL_IMPLEMENTATION": 52, "TOKENIZED_TREASURY": 50, "MICA": 49, "ONDO": 48, "REG_S": 47, "BAFIN": 43, "JFSA": 43, "HKMA": 41, "FED": 36, "FCA": 32, "CFTC": 32, "OCC": 32, "BLACKROCK": 31, "RIPPLE": 31, "PAXOS": 31, "JPMORGAN": 31, "CANTON_NETWORK": 27, "FIDELITY": 26, "BASE": 26, "BNY_MELLON": 26, "DTCC": 26, "FARCASTER": 23, "EU_JURISDICTION": 11, "ESMA": 10, "MAS": 8, "GITHUB_PRESENCE": 5, "RWA_AUDIENCE": 1, "DEFI_AUDIENCE": 1, "CRYPTO_NATIVE_AUDIENCE": 1, "HK_JURISDICTION": 1, "MAPLE": 1, "CUSTODY_IS_SOLVED": 1, "ONCHAIN_IS_TRANSPARENT": 1, "INSTITUTIONAL_CUSTODY_POOL": 1, "SINGAPORE_JURISDICTION": 1, "TETHER": 1, "TRAVEL_RULE": 1, "REG_A_PLUS": 1, "FINRA": 1, "TREASURY_MARKET": 1, "UK_JURISDICTION": 1, "US_EAST_COAST": 1, "STABLECOIN_POOL": 1, "MARKET_CYCLE": 1, "SWITZERLAND_JURISDICTION": 1, "FOMC_NEXT": 1, "GAP_BASE_DECENTRALIZATION": 1, "GAP_ONCHAIN_COVERS_ALL": 1, "POLYGON": 1, "BINANCE": 1, "IMMUNEFI": 1, "HESTER_PEIRCE": 1, "DAN_GALLAGHER": 1, "COLLECT_SIGNAL": 1, "BASE_CHAIN": 1, "JUMP_TRADING": 1, "THIRDWEB": 1, "STAR_SIGNAL": 1, "JEREMY_ALLAIRE": 1, "CUSTOM_FEED": 1, "GSR": 1, "RWA_XYZ_DATA": 1, "QUALITY_SCORE": 1, "OFFCHAIN_LABS": 1, "CHANNEL_RELEVANCE": 1, "DUNE_DATA": 1, "COINGECKO_DATA": 1, "CODE4RENA": 1, "BITGO": 1, "SHERLOCK": 1, "CAYMAN_BVI": 1, "ANCHORAGE": 1, "US_WEST_COAST": 1, "AERODROME": 1, "FIAT_OFFRAMP": 1, "EAS": 1, "FIREBLOCKS": 1, "NATHAN_ALLMAN": 1, "WINTERMUTE": 1, "HONG_KONG_REGION": 1, "SINGAPORE_REGION": 1, "DEFILLAMA_DATA": 1, "SPIKO": 1, "FIAT_ONRAMP": 1, "CURVE": 1, "CARLOS_DOMINGO": 1, "MIRROR_XYZ": 1, "BLUESKY": 1, "ROBERT_LESHNER": 1, "BASE_IS_THE_CHAIN": 1, "BACKED": 1, "JESSE_POLLAK": 1, "DEFI_IS_DEAD": 1, "MORPHO": 1, "STABLECOIN_DOMINANCE": 1, "GITHUB": 1, "CHAINLINK_ORACLES": 1, "EU_WESTERN": 1, "LARRY_FINK": 1, "TOKENIZATION_INEVITABLE": 1, "KINEXYS": 1, "EVIDENCE_LAYER": 1, "DEFI_TVL_POOL": 1, "RWA_SOLVES_YIELD": 1, "STANI_KULECHOV": 1, "LENS_PROTOCOL": 1, "ARBITRUM": 1, "UNISWAP": 1, "SECURITIZE": 1, "COINBASE_SPOT": 1, "OPENZEPPELIN_CONTRACTS": 1, "AUDIT_EXPIRY": 1, "HYPERLIQUID_BRIDGE": 1, "PARAGRAPH": 1, "AVALANCHE": 1, "BASE_BUILD_ROUND": 1, "OPTIMISM_RETROPGF": 1, "REPLY_GRAPH": 1, "COMPOUND_FORUM": 1, "WBTC": 1, "JUSTLEND": 1, "PAXOS_GOLD": 1, "ATTESTATION_EXPIRY": 1, "meta_market": 1, "SPARKLEND": 1, "SKY": 1, "RWA_INFLUENCER_1": 1, "GAP_STABLECOIN_CONCENTRATION": 1, "COINBASE_BRIDGE": 1, "ONDO_YIELD_ASSETS": 1, "RWA_INFLUENCER_5": 1, "RWA_INFLUENCER_4": 1, "RWA_INFLUENCER_3": 1, "KAMINO_LEND": 1, "TOKEN2049_DUBAI": 1, "USDT0": 1, "BASE_GRANTS": 1, "JUSTCRYPTOS": 1, "ENGAGEMENT_VELOCITY": 1, "OXFORD_PRIORITY_MORTGAGE": 1, "RWA_TELEGRAM": 1, "BINANCE_BITCOIN": 1, "TARGET": 1, "CERTIK": 1, "MORPHO_V1": 1, "TWITTER_RWA": 1, "SPARK_SAVINGS": 1, "TETHER_GOLD": 1, "AAVE_FORUM": 1, "CIRCLE_USYC": 1, "FARCASTER_INFRA": 1, "BARE_METAL_VALIDATORS": 1, "RWA_CONF_2025": 1, "RWA_INFLUENCER_2": 1, "DEFI_DAO": 1, "BLACKROCK_BUIDL": 1, "AAVE_V3": 1, "STRIKE": 1, "PENDLE": 1, "SOLANA": 1, "MINT": 1, "DELTA_WINDOW_AI": 1, "GOVERNANCE_VOTE": 1, "TOKEN_UNLOCK": 1, "OPENZEPPELIN_AUDIT": 1, "GCP_INFRASTRUCTURE": 1, "CROSS_CHAIN_BRIDGE": 1, "TRAIL_OF_BITS": 1, "REGULATORY_DEADLINE": 1, "DISCORD": 1, "REGULATION_CLARITY_COMING": 1, "GAP_CUSTODY_RISK": 1, "TELEGRAM": 1, "TECH_AUDIENCE": 1, "COLLECTOR_AUDIENCE": 1, "SUBSCRIBER_AUDIENCE": 1, "VC_FUNDING_POOL": 1, "PARAGRAPH_XYZ": 1, "GRANT_POOL": 1, "DEVELOPER_AUDIENCE": 1, "DEX_SETTLEMENT": 1, "GOLDMAN": 1, "COMMUNITY_AUDIENCE": 1, "COMPOUND_GOVERNANCE": 1, "AWS_INFRASTRUCTURE": 1, "AAVE_GOVERNANCE": 1, "34539544": 1 }, "pt_kappa_series": [ { "cycle_id": 0, "t_close": "2026-07-29T15:37:26.349312+00:00", "PT": 0.0, "kappa": 0.7357 }, { "cycle_id": 1, "t_close": "2026-07-29T16:01:19.195493+00:00", "PT": 0.0, "kappa": 0.7357 }, { "cycle_id": 2, "t_close": "2026-07-29T17:30:47.534728+00:00", "PT": 0.0, "kappa": 0.7629 }, { "cycle_id": 3, "t_close": "2026-07-29T17:45:52.588412+00:00", "PT": 0.0, "kappa": 0.7629 }, { "cycle_id": 4, "t_close": "2026-07-29T19:18:38.821679+00:00", "PT": 0.018948, "kappa": 0.7629 }, { "cycle_id": 5, "t_close": "2026-07-29T20:30:45.043232+00:00", "PT": 0.025116, "kappa": 0.7629 }, { "cycle_id": 6, "t_close": "2026-07-29T23:26:10.036114+00:00", "PT": 0.026883, "kappa": 0.7629 }, { "cycle_id": 7, "t_close": "2026-07-30T01:54:56.786800+00:00", "PT": 0.027669, "kappa": 0.7629 }, { "cycle_id": 8, "t_close": "2026-07-30T03:36:11.394787+00:00", "PT": 0.028056, "kappa": 0.7629 }, { "cycle_id": 9, "t_close": "2026-07-30T07:43:52.518077+00:00", "PT": 0.028869, "kappa": 0.7629 }, { "cycle_id": 10, "t_close": "2026-07-30T11:51:31.364921+00:00", "PT": 0.029691, "kappa": 0.7629 }, { "cycle_id": 11, "t_close": "2026-07-30T15:59:19.225088+00:00", "PT": 0.03, "kappa": 0.7629 }, { "cycle_id": 12, "t_close": "2026-07-31T19:08:29.632046+00:00", "PT": 0.017361, "kappa": 0.7624 }, { "cycle_id": 13, "t_close": "2026-07-31T22:41:10.716387+00:00", "PT": 0.011697, "kappa": 0.7684 }, { "cycle_id": 14, "t_close": "2026-08-01T01:11:05.192641+00:00", "PT": 0.011262, "kappa": 0.6686 }, { "cycle_id": 15, "t_close": "2026-08-01T01:32:37.870312+00:00", "PT": 0.011746, "kappa": 0.6686 }, { "cycle_id": 16, "t_close": "2026-08-01T02:20:46.732243+00:00", "PT": 0.012745, "kappa": 0.6686 }, { "cycle_id": 17, "t_close": "2026-08-01T02:50:12.611715+00:00", "PT": 0.01106, "kappa": 0.6686 }, { "cycle_id": 18, "t_close": "2026-08-01T05:15:17.565947+00:00", "PT": 0.012429, "kappa": 0.6686 }, { "cycle_id": 19, "t_close": "2026-08-01T06:59:26.507848+00:00", "PT": 0.012864, "kappa": 0.6686 }, { "cycle_id": 20, "t_close": "2026-08-01T11:07:31.668949+00:00", "PT": 0.01107, "kappa": 0.6686 }, { "cycle_id": 21, "t_close": "2026-08-01T13:21:07.527595+00:00", "PT": 0.013023, "kappa": 0.6686 }, { "cycle_id": 22, "t_close": "2026-08-01T14:45:34.427717+00:00", "PT": 0.013023, "kappa": 0.6686 }, { "cycle_id": 23, "t_close": "2026-08-01T15:15:57.008619+00:00", "PT": 0.0127, "kappa": 0.6686 }, { "cycle_id": 24, "t_close": "2026-08-01T19:25:14.187069+00:00", "PT": 0.012262, "kappa": 0.6683 }, { "cycle_id": 25, "t_close": "2026-08-01T22:04:36.404656+00:00", "PT": 0.012004, "kappa": 0.6683 }, { "cycle_id": 26, "t_close": "2026-08-01T23:35:23.731007+00:00", "PT": 0.011784, "kappa": 0.6687 }, { "cycle_id": 27, "t_close": "2026-08-02T03:45:22.559899+00:00", "PT": 0.011147, "kappa": 0.6687 }, { "cycle_id": 28, "t_close": "2026-08-02T05:49:28.211529+00:00", "PT": 0.008701, "kappa": null }, { "cycle_id": 29, "t_close": "2026-08-02T06:23:52.553171+00:00", "PT": 0.00697, "kappa": 0.6687 }, { "cycle_id": 30, "t_close": "2026-08-02T06:32:48.048251+00:00", "PT": 0.007573, "kappa": 0.6687 }, { "cycle_id": 31, "t_close": "2026-08-02T06:46:06.913435+00:00", "PT": 0.00777, "kappa": 0.6687 }, { "cycle_id": 32, "t_close": "2026-08-02T06:55:37.492146+00:00", "PT": 0.007758, "kappa": 0.6687 }, { "cycle_id": 33, "t_close": "2026-08-02T07:07:01.983118+00:00", "PT": 0.007857, "kappa": 0.6687 }, { "cycle_id": 34, "t_close": "2026-08-02T10:24:35.032354+00:00", "PT": 0.007723, "kappa": 0.6687 }, { "cycle_id": 35, "t_close": "2026-08-02T13:19:06.888652+00:00", "PT": 0.007723, "kappa": 0.6687 }, { "cycle_id": 36, "t_close": "2026-08-02T16:27:35.755109+00:00", "PT": 0.005529, "kappa": 0.6687 }, { "cycle_id": 37, "t_close": "2026-08-02T16:28:20.482945+00:00", "PT": 0.005143, "kappa": 0.6687 } ], "predictions_scoreboard": { "n_total": 154, "n_open": 151, "n_resolved": 3, "n_void": 1, "n_assessable": 1, "n_true": 0, "n_false": 1, "accuracy_pct": null, "note": "Host prediction register: 1 assessable (TRUE/FALSE, non-VOID) of 3 resolved; 151 open. Accuracy % shown only when assessable n ≥ 5.", "updated_at": "2026-08-01T00:45:28+00:00", "resolved": [ { "prediction_id": "FED_EXTRACTION_001", "status": "RESOLVED", "outcome": "VOID", "deadline": "2026-07-13", "calibration_weight": "none", "resolved_at": "2026-07-13T06:14:56+00:00", "title": "the Fed will either implement an emergency rate cut (50+ bps off-cycle) or expand its balance sh...", "claim": "the Fed will either implement an emergency rate cut (50+ bps off-cycle) or expand its balance sheet above $6T before 2026-07-13.", "why": null }, { "prediction_id": "INDIA_BANKNIFTY_001", "status": "RESOLVED", "outcome": "FALSE", "deadline": "2026-06-13", "calibration_weight": "none", "resolved_at": "2026-07-05T17:37:30+00:00", "title": "a settlement-gap event on NSE involving a 98:1 (or similar order-of-magnitude) ratio between cle...", "claim": "a settlement-gap event on NSE involving a 98:1 (or similar order-of-magnitude) ratio between cleared positions and underlying capacity will surface before 2026-06-13.", "why": null }, { "prediction_id": "PHYSICS_T_A_DOLLAR_001", "status": "RESOLVED_PARTIAL", "outcome": null, "deadline": "2027-02-28", "calibration_weight": null, "resolved_at": "2026-07-15T18:01:33+00:00", "title": "Meta Family advertising revenue per December Family DAP (r_t = AdRev_FY / DAP_Dec) is a stable t...", "claim": "Meta Family advertising revenue per December Family DAP (r_t = AdRev_FY / DAP_Dec) is a stable transport coefficient: |r_t/r_{t-1}-1| < 0.15 for both 2023→2024 and 2024→2025. Cross-platform: Alphabet official comparable r within 2× of Meta r_2025. Prospective: |r_2026/r_2025-1| < 0.10 when Meta FY2026 discloses.", "why": "Candidate T_A→$ on Meta DAP is rising ~15%/yr — monetization/clearing path, not fixed transport coefficient" } ] }, "top_entities_by_phi_s": [ { "entity": "CIRCLE", "display": "Circle", "phi_s": 11.3929, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "issuer_protocol", "facet_label": "Issuers / Protocols", "display_role": "actor", "role_label": "Actors" }, { "entity": "ETHEREUM", "display": "Ethereum L1", "phi_s": 8.1106, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "chain", "facet_label": "Chains", "display_role": "rail", "role_label": "Rails" }, { "entity": "REG_D", "display": "Regulation D Exemption", "phi_s": 6.5205, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "rule_framework", "facet_label": "Rule frameworks", "display_role": "rule_framework", "role_label": "Rule frameworks", "kind_note": "regulation / exemption framework" }, { "entity": "COINBASE", "display": "Coinbase", "phi_s": 6.5107, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "issuer_protocol", "facet_label": "Issuers / Protocols", "display_role": "actor", "role_label": "Actors" }, { "entity": "REG_S", "display": "Regulation S Exemption", "phi_s": 4.9024, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "rule_framework", "facet_label": "Rule frameworks", "display_role": "rule_framework", "role_label": "Rule frameworks", "kind_note": "regulation / exemption framework" }, { "entity": "JPMORGAN", "display": "JPMorgan Chase", "phi_s": 4.8781, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "institution", "facet_label": "Institutions", "display_role": "actor", "role_label": "Actors" }, { "entity": "US_JURISDICTION", "display": "United States Jurisdiction", "phi_s": 4.2552, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "regulator", "facet_label": "Regulators", "display_role": "actor", "role_label": "Actors" }, { "entity": "FED", "display": "Federal Reserve", "phi_s": 4.0722, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "regulator", "facet_label": "Regulators", "display_role": "actor", "role_label": "Actors" }, { "entity": "BLACKROCK", "display": "BlackRock", "phi_s": 3.2866, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "institution", "facet_label": "Institutions", "display_role": "actor", "role_label": "Actors" }, { "entity": "DORA", "display": "Digital Operational Resilience Act", "phi_s": 3.2842, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "rule_framework", "facet_label": "Rule frameworks", "display_role": "rule_framework", "role_label": "Rule frameworks", "kind_note": "regulation / exemption framework" }, { "entity": "MICA_FULL_IMPLEMENTATION", "display": "MiCA Full Implementation", "phi_s": 3.2811, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "rule_framework", "facet_label": "Rule frameworks", "display_role": "rule_framework", "role_label": "Rule frameworks", "kind_note": "regulation / exemption framework" }, { "entity": "TRAVEL_RULE", "display": "FATF Travel Rule", "phi_s": 3.2602, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "rule_framework", "facet_label": "Rule frameworks", "display_role": "rule_framework", "role_label": "Rule frameworks", "kind_note": "regulation / exemption framework" }, { "entity": "UNISWAP", "display": "Uniswap DEX", "phi_s": 3.2562, "kappa": 0.0002, "display_kind": "issuer_protocol", "facet_label": "Issuers / Protocols", "display_role": "actor", "role_label": "Actors" }, { "entity": "REG_A_PLUS", "display": "Regulation A Plus", "phi_s": 3.2522, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "rule_framework", "facet_label": "Rule frameworks", "display_role": "rule_framework", "role_label": "Rule frameworks", "kind_note": "regulation / exemption framework" }, { "entity": "CRYPTO_NATIVE_AUDIENCE", "display": "Crypto Native Audience", "phi_s": 3.2362, "kappa": 0.0, "display_kind": "audience", "facet_label": "Audiences", "display_role": "actor", "role_label": "Actors" }, { "entity": "PAXOS", "display": "PAXOS", "phi_s": 3.2362, "kappa": 0.3195, "display_kind": "other", "facet_label": "Other", "display_role": "other", "role_label": "Other" } ], "helix": { "index": 1195, "fingerprint_prefix": null, "n_entries": 1196, "note": "Local helix chain tip at export — on-chain commits remain gated." }, "meta": { "bake_hint": "After parkash: set GENIUSFLOW_REFRESH_PUBLIC=1 (or run engine/tools/refresh_public_surfaces.py / Pages scripts/refresh-public.sh) — exports field-state + dossier mirrors, optional federation deploy via GENIUSFLOW_BUILDER_DEPLOY=1; Host still git commit/push Pages. Do not hand-edit proof tiles.", "reports_obs_badge": "Signal report green badges are vault rows at publish (trimmed), not M1 lifetime coverage. Report templates overlay live Φ_S/κ from federation dossier mirrors when present." } }