Musk Infrastructure Watch (Live EDGAR)

Who are you reading as? 5 lenses

Same data, different emphasis. Pick a lens and the hint below tells you where to look on this page.

Start with the live charts and catalyst calendar. Plain English: we track when Musk-linked companies file with the SEC and when locked-up shares can hit the market.

Focus on net-worth proxy, lock-up calendar (V5 exhibit), and debt chain. Ask: where does cash exit to insiders vs stay in the cap structure?

Focus on SPCX price vs IPO, catalyst dates (supply steps), and filing briefs demand/supply boxes. Debt prints are not the same as float events.

Focus on debt chain, bond 8-K use of proceeds, related-party table, and basis tags (b=filing, m=market). Reconcile every dollar to EDGAR.

Focus on infrastructure loop diagram, three-leg refinance exhibit, and bridge maturity cliff. Capital moves vehicle-to-vehicle like a systems diagram.

Empire memory agent longitudinal

Reads every filing brief, alert, catalyst, and debt step. Tracks Musk, SPCX, Tesla, and related entities over time and surfaces larger patterns.

Current read: As of 2026-08-13, the memory agent tracks 97 events across 5 entities (Musk, SPCX, Tesla, and related vehicles). Confirmed patterns: Debt travels across vehicles; Payday is the sale (TSLA); Debt print ≠ equity exit. Emerging now: Infrastructure before supply step; Repeatable empire loop. On watch: Supply staircase H1 2026-27. SPCX last signal (2027-09-02): Goldman bridge maturity cliff (~$11.4B remaining). Musk ledger focus: TSLA Form 4 sales ~$40B cumulative; SPCX locked until 2027-06-16.

Updated 2026-08-13T21:37:25Z · 97 events · 6 patterns · JSON

Patterns emerging

confirmed · H12

Debt travels across vehicles

7 dated steps from Twitter LBO through X/xAI to SpaceX bridge and refi. Leverage migrates via common-control combinations, not clean paydown at each step.

emerging · H12 + H5

Infrastructure before supply step

Bond/refi filings (bridge repayment) landed before the first major lock-up unlock (Aug 2026). Company clears bank overhang before tradable float expands — reduces forced-sale risk, does not reduce insider share count.

confirmed · H2

Payday is the sale (TSLA)

Parsed Form 4 open-market sales total ~$40.0B across 5 years. Primary personal liquidity channel while SPCX economic stake remains lock-up gated.

watch · H5/H6

Supply staircase H1 2026-27

6 catalysts in next 120 days: 2026-08-20 First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; ro; 2026-08-20 First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; ro; 2026-09-02 Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window en; 2026-09-02 Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window en. Pattern to watch: each step tests whether retail absorbs insider-adjacent supply.

confirmed · loop mechanics

Debt print ≠ equity exit

Recent bond pricing 8-K adds ~$25B notes and retires bridge — classified as cap-structure infrastructure. Musk personal exit channel (Form 4 / unlock) not activated by this filing.

emerging · master thesis

Repeatable empire loop

Same structural moves recur: SolarCity into Tesla (2016), Twitter debt into SpaceX IPO (2026). Hype -> vehicle -> control wedge -> belief premium -> exit -> roll. Testing whether SPCX follows the same supply calendar as prior vehicles.

Entities the agent knows

Elon Musk (reporting person)

Reporting insider CIK 1494730; spine of sell timeline

Last: 2026-12-31 — TSLA open-market sales 2026: 1 trades, $0.00B

7 events · themes: H2, insider_sale, tesla, debt_refi

Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX)

Latest public vehicle; absorbed X and xAI

Last: 2027-09-02 — Goldman bridge maturity cliff (~$11.4B remaining)

29 events · themes: catalyst, supply, H12, debt_refi

Tesla Inc

Primary public cash-extraction vehicle historically

Last: 2026-07-23 — Quarterly report

6 events · themes: debt_refi, insider_trade, supply

Twitter Inc

2022 LBO; debt carrier into X/xAI/SpaceX chain

Last: 2025-03-28 — X folded into xAI (X.AI Holdings)

3 events · themes: debt_travel, H12

Event timeline (memory)

2027-09-02spacex Bridge maturity (refinancing cliff)
2027-09-02spacex Goldman bridge maturity cliff (~$11.4B remaining)
2027-09-02spacex Goldman bridge maturity cliff (~$11.4B remaining)
2027-06-16spacex Musk block unlock (~6.4B shares, largest tranche)
2027-06-16spacex Musk block unlock (~6.4B shares, largest tranche)
2026-12-31musk TSLA open-market sales 2026: 1 trades, $0.00B
2026-12-08spacex Remainder lock-up release (180-day customary expiry)
2026-12-08spacex Remainder lock-up release (180-day customary expiry)
2026-09-02spacex Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window ends
2026-09-02spacex Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window ends
2026-08-20spacex First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float)
2026-08-20spacex First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float)
2026-08-13portfolio SPCX $146.15 TSLA $327.51 NW $1211.77B
2026-08-13musk Material event (SCHEDULE 13G) source
2026-08-13musk SCHEDULE 13G source
2026-08-12portfolio SPCX $133.29 TSLA $332.81 NW $1132.89B
2026-08-11portfolio SPCX $138.74 TSLA $330.88 NW $1166.54B
2026-08-10portfolio SPCX $133.11 TSLA $328.58 NW $1128.72B
2026-08-09portfolio SPCX $133.11 TSLA $328.58 NW $1128.72B
2026-08-08portfolio SPCX $133.11 TSLA $328.58 NW $1128.72B

Live time series updates every sync

Daily Yahoo history plus a new point every ~30 minutes when GitHub Actions runs. Net-worth proxy = Tesla stake + ~36% SPCX economic stake + cumulative Form 4 cash (private names excluded).

SPCX vs IPO ($135)

Price (basis m). Red line = IPO reference.

TSLA (Musk stake mark)

Live quote feeding Tesla component of net-worth proxy.

Net-worth proxy ($B)

Sum of priced components only. Not Forbes; our filing-backed model.

Stake components ($B)

SpaceX vs Tesla vs realized cash over time.

Loading timeseries.json...

What you are looking at

This page is a live research dossier, not a news feed or a trading signal. An automated bot polls the SEC every 30 minutes for filings tied to Elon Musk and the public companies he has founded, acquired, or controlled. When something new lands, the site rebuilds itself from primary records. Every dollar figure here is meant to trace back to a filing, proxy, or market snapshot labeled by basis (b = filing, m = market data).

The hypothesis we are testing

Across a chain of companies, Musk may run a repeatable loop: build real-economy hype, own the channel that broadcasts it, list or absorb into a vehicle he controls, let belief inflate the stock, then sell his stake into the demand that loop created and roll proceeds into the next venture. We are not claiming fraud or intent. We are testing whether the same structural moves recur and whether dated public events confirm or falsify each piece.

Frontier (Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter/X) → Megaphone (X, Grok, owned disclosure channels) → Public vehicle (IPO or absorption) → Control wedge (vote ≫ economics) → Belief premium (high multiple funds the gap) → Exit (Form 4 sales, lock-up releases) → Roll (debt + cash into next vehicle)

Why the SpaceX IPO (SPCX) matters now

SpaceX listed as SPCX on June 16, 2026 at $135/share. It is the latest turn of the loop: xAI and X were folded in, ~$13B of Twitter LBO debt traveled with them, a $20B Goldman bridge was added, and IPO proceeds repaid ~$19B of that stack. Only ~5% of shares trade; the rest unlock on a public calendar. The first big test is August 20, 2026, when tradable float roughly doubles. The debt cliff is September 2, 2027, when the remaining bridge matures.

Four pillars (each graded separately)

P1 · MegaphoneHe produces, broadcasts, and helps price the belief later sold into.

P2 · ControlVoting power far exceeds economic ownership; public funds, limited steer.

P3 · TransferCash exits to insiders via sales; junior risk migrates to retail/index.

P4 · EngineeringDebt and related-party flows travel vehicle to vehicle.

What is already supported from filings

H2 (payday is the sale): ~$39.98B cumulative Tesla open-market sales parsed from Form 4s, not salary or dividends.
H11 (absorb + restate): SolarCity 2016 prototype; xAI/X into SpaceX 2025–26 at larger scale.
H12 (debt travels): Twitter $13B → X → xAI → SpaceX bridge → IPO repay → notes offering (see debt chain below).
H13 (related parties): Tesla↔SpaceX↔Valor loops (~$235M/yr proxy; ~$20B Valor leases in SPCX filings).

How to read the rest of the page: SPCX box = live price + latest issuer 8-K. Catalyst calendar = pre-registered dates that stress-test the thesis. Debt chain = how leverage moved between entities. Related parties = channels he can act through without a headline "Musk sold." Charts = evidence, not opinion. Educational only. Not investment advice.

Live portfolio and net-worth proxy

~$1189.37B net-worth proxy

As of 2026-08-13T20:50:36Z UTC. Updated each sync (~30 min via GitHub Actions). Yahoo data is delayed, not tick-by-tick.

Tesla stake: $241.37BSpaceX stake: $908.02BCash (sales): $39.98B

Counts only what has a public mark today: Tesla shares (Form 4 anchor × live TSLA), SpaceX economic stake (~36% × SPCX price), and cumulative cash from Tesla sales. Private stakes (X, xAI, Boring, Neuralink) are listed but not priced.

Holding	Ticker	Price	1d	Value	Basis	Notes
Tesla Inc	TSLA	$339.96	+3.8%	$241.37B	`b+m`	Beneficial shares from Form 4 anchor x live price
SpaceX (SPCX)	SPCX	$141.29	-3.3%	$908.02B	`b+m`	~36% econ x 17B total shares proxy at IPO
Cash (Tesla sales)	—	—	—	$39.98B	`b`	Cumulative Form 4 open-market sales, not salary or dividends
Twitter / X	—	—	—	—	`c`	Private; debt traveled to SpaceX
xAI	—	—	—	—	`c`	Absorbed into SpaceX (no separate mark)
The Boring Company	—	—	—	—	`c`	Private; no public price
Neuralink	—	—	—	—	`c`	Private; no public price

Educational proxy only. Private stakes excluded. Not investment advice.

SPCX live: SpaceX IPO + latest issuer filing

Space Exploration Technologies listed as SPCX on June 16, 2026. This box pulls the live stock price (basis m) and the latest material 8-K from issuer CIK 1181412 (basis b).

Senior unsecured notes offering (2026-06-22, basis b). Disclosed ~$100.8B cash as of 2026-06-19. Use the net proceeds from the Notes offering to repay the outstanding borrowings under its bridge loan facility in full, to pay related fees and expenses, and any remaining amount for general corporate purposes.. Read SpaceX 8-K on EDGAR

SPCX last $141.29 (-3.3% 1d, basis m, as of 2026-08-13T20:50:36Z). Vs IPO $135.0: +4.7%. Vs all-time high $211.39 (2026-06-16): -33.2%.

SPCX time series — price × SEC × inventory

Daily close vs IPO, cumulative tradable float from the V5 lock-up ladder, and SEC / calendar events on that day. Grades whether the scarcity premium holds as inventory frees up (Aug 20 first major unlock).

SPCX time series — price × SEC × inventory

SPCX tracker: $141.29 · +4.7% vs IPO $135.0 · tradable float ~4.86% (IPO float (~4.86%)) · next inventory free-up 2026-08-20 (7d → ~9.72% float) · Aug-20 unlock test not graded yet (date still ahead)

Date	Price	vs IPO	Float%	Inv free	SEC	Event
2026-08-13	$141.29	4.66%	4.86%	—		—
2026-08-12	$146.15	8.26%	4.86%	—		—
2026-08-11	$133.29	-1.27%	4.86%	—		—
2026-08-10	$138.74	2.77%	4.86%	—		—
2026-08-07	$133.11	-1.4%	4.86%	—		—
2026-08-06	$114.92	-14.87%	4.86%	—		—
2026-08-05	$108.27	-19.8%	4.86%	—		—
2026-08-04	$125.33	-7.16%	4.86%	—	3	Latest SpaceX 8-K
2026-08-03	$114.53	-15.16%	4.86%	—		—
2026-07-31	$108.37	-19.73%	4.86%	—		—
2026-07-30	$112.2	-16.89%	4.86%	—		—
2026-07-29	$112.55	-16.63%	4.86%	—		—
2026-07-28	$116.41	-13.77%	4.86%	—		—
2026-07-27	$113.5	-15.93%	4.86%	—		—

Inv free = lock-up / float step that day. Float% = cumulative tradable inventory from V5 calendar.

Download unlock series JSON

Filing briefs multi-lens

Auto-generated when the SEC watcher fires. Same perspectives as email alerts: engineer, trader, CFA, Elon personally, demand and supply.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) · 8-K · 2026-06-23

EDGAR filing · generated 2026-06-23T22:48:56Z

In one line: Bond offering priced (coupon and maturity set) Total priced: ~$25.0B across 5 tranches: • $7.0B @ 5.350% due 2031 • $6.0B @ 5.650% due 2033…

Everyone

Bond offering priced (coupon and maturity set)

Engineer

Capital stack move: unsecured notes replace short-dated bridge bank debt. Operationally this buys runway to fund Starlink, Starship, and xAI compute without issuing new equity today.
Engineering implication: proceeds retire the bridge facility that was funding the post-IPO debt overhang from the Twitter/X/xAI chain. Fixed-rate tranches lock in cost of capital out to 2031–2056 instead of floating bank exposure.
Infrastructure lens: this issuer runs launch, satellite, and AI compute capex cycles measured in billions. Debt taps public markets; equity supply is still gated by lock-ups in the prospectus.

Trader

Tradeable read: this is a DEBT print, not new equity float. Near-term SPCX supply impact is indirect (sentiment / overhang), not shares hitting the tape.
Bridge paydown removes a known overhang from the June IPO narrative. Short-term: can support price if market was discounting refi risk. Medium-term: adds ~$25B fixed coupons to the capital structure.
Watch: bond pricing reception (order book), credit spreads vs Mag7, and whether SPCX equity trades as a levered growth proxy after settlement.
Next dated supply/demand events on our calendar:
• 2026-08-20: First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float)
• 2026-09-02: Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window ends
• 2026-12-08: Remainder lock-up release (180-day customary expiry)

CFA

Credit / structure: senior unsecured notes rank pari passu with existing unsubordinated debt. This extends duration and fixes coupons.
Blended coupon on priced tranches: ~5.86% (simple size-weighted).
Use of proceeds (bridge repayment + fees + general corporate) implies IPO cash and note proceeds are closing the Goldman bridge chapter, not returning capital to shareholders.
Equity holder lens: no dilution from this filing, but higher financial leverage and future interest burden. Monitor coverage once 10-Q debt footnotes update.
Debt chain context: 2027-09-02 Bridge maturity (refinancing cliff) (~$11.4B outstanding per dossier model).

Elon personally

This is a company-level bond print, not a Musk Form 4. He does not receive cash from it personally today. His ~36% economic SPCX stake still cannot be sold until lock-up releases (largest block unlock: Jun 16, 2027 per prospectus).
Personally, the win is balance-sheet cleanup: the Goldman bridge tied to the Twitter -> X -> xAI -> SpaceX debt relay gets retired with public-market notes. That removes a near-term refi sword over the vehicle he controls.
Loop read (H2/H12): Musk builds hype, takes the empire public, retains control, then realizes personal cash by selling existing stake into retail demand at dated unlock steps. This filing is infrastructure (debt refi), not the exit step.
Watch his personal ledger separately: TSLA Form 4 sales (~$40B cumulative in our dossier) remain the active personal liquidity channel while SPCX is gated.

Demand & supply

Demand vs supply (what actually moves the stock):
• EQUITY SUPPLY: unchanged by this filing. Lock-up calendar still drives tradable float (next step Aug 20, 2026 ~7% pool per prospectus).
• EQUITY DEMAND: debt deal can attract institutional credit buyers, not retail share buyers. Indirect bid possible if refi overhang clears.
• DEBT SUPPLY: +~$25.0B new notes to market (institutional allocation).
• FLOAT PSYCHOLOGY: removing bridge uncertainty may reduce forced-sale risk premium; does not add insider shares.

Tesla Inc · 8-K · 2026-07-22

EDGAR filing · generated 2026-07-22T21:14:42Z

In one line: Operating results or guidance Key size disclosed: ~$12.0B Items filed: Item 2: 02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Item 2: 02 of Form 8-K, "Results of Operations and Financial Condition" and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section; Item 9: 01 Financial S…

Everyone

Operating results or guidance

Engineer

Read the exhibit for operational detail (contracts, launches, compute). 8-K body is often legal wrapper; Exhibit 99.1 carries the substance.

Trader

Map filing to next dated catalyst on the calendar before sizing risk.
Next dated supply/demand events on our calendar:
• 2026-08-20: First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float)
• 2026-09-02: Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window ends
• 2026-12-08: Remainder lock-up release (180-day customary expiry)

CFA

Treat as corporate finance or governance signal until quantified in financials.

Elon personally

Issuer filing: affects TSLA capital structure and governance, not necessarily Musk's personal sales today. Cross-check CIK 1494730 Form 4 stream for his moves.

Demand & supply

Demand vs supply (what actually moves the stock):
• Re-read for explicit share count, ATM, secondary, or lock-up language.

Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) · 8-K · 2026-06-26

EDGAR filing · generated 2026-06-26T21:25:51Z

In one line: New debt or securities offering commenced Key size disclosed: ~$12.0B Items filed: Item 8.01: Other Events; Item 9.01: Financial Statements and Exhibits…

Everyone

New debt or securities offering commenced

Engineer

Read the exhibit for operational detail (contracts, launches, compute). 8-K body is often legal wrapper; Exhibit 99.1 carries the substance.
Infrastructure lens: this issuer runs launch, satellite, and AI compute capex cycles measured in billions. Debt taps public markets; equity supply is still gated by lock-ups in the prospectus.

Trader

Map filing to next dated catalyst on the calendar before sizing risk.
Next dated supply/demand events on our calendar:
• 2026-08-20: First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float)
• 2026-09-02: Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window ends
• 2026-12-08: Remainder lock-up release (180-day customary expiry)

CFA

Treat as corporate finance or governance signal until quantified in financials.
Debt chain context: 2027-09-02 Bridge maturity (refinancing cliff) (~$11.4B outstanding per dossier model).

Elon personally

Map to Musk only if he is reporting person, related party, or control person named in the exhibit.

Demand & supply

Demand vs supply (what actually moves the stock):
• Re-read for explicit share count, ATM, secondary, or lock-up language.

Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) · 8-K · 2026-08-04

EDGAR filing · generated 2026-08-04T21:16:48Z

In one line: Operating results or guidance Key size disclosed: ~$12.0B Items filed: Item 2.02: Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Item 2: 02, including Exhibit 99; Item 9.01: Financial Statements and Exhibits…

Everyone

Operating results or guidance

Engineer

Read the exhibit for operational detail (contracts, launches, compute). 8-K body is often legal wrapper; Exhibit 99.1 carries the substance.
Infrastructure lens: this issuer runs launch, satellite, and AI compute capex cycles measured in billions. Debt taps public markets; equity supply is still gated by lock-ups in the prospectus.

Trader

Map filing to next dated catalyst on the calendar before sizing risk.
Next dated supply/demand events on our calendar:
• 2026-08-20: First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float)
• 2026-09-02: Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window ends
• 2026-12-08: Remainder lock-up release (180-day customary expiry)

CFA

Treat as corporate finance or governance signal until quantified in financials.
Debt chain context: 2027-09-02 Bridge maturity (refinancing cliff) (~$11.4B outstanding per dossier model).

Elon personally

Map to Musk only if he is reporting person, related party, or control person named in the exhibit.

Demand & supply

Demand vs supply (what actually moves the stock):
• Re-read for explicit share count, ATM, secondary, or lock-up language.

Elon Musk (CIK 1494730) · 4 · 2026-06-17

EDGAR filing · generated 2026-06-23T22:49:03Z

In one line: Insider transaction reported (Form 4)…

Everyone

Insider transaction reported (Form 4)

Engineer

Insider ledger update: mechanical SEC reporting of ownership changes. Check whether sale is 10b5-1, tax, or discretionary.

Trader

Form 4: check size vs 20-day volume, cluster with other insiders, and whether price is into strength (dossier H2/H6).
Next dated supply/demand events on our calendar:
• 2026-08-20: First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float)
• 2026-09-02: Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window ends
• 2026-12-08: Remainder lock-up release (180-day customary expiry)

CFA

Treat as corporate finance or governance signal until quantified in financials.

Elon personally

Form 4 is direct personal ledger: shares sold, exercised, or gifted change his cash and control. Size and timing vs price strength test H2 (sell into demand).
Cluster with other insiders and catalyst calendar before inferring intent (10b5-1 plan vs discretionary).

Demand & supply

Demand vs supply (what actually moves the stock):
• SUPPLY: insider sale increases free float available at the margin; clustered Form 4s are the dossier's primary supply signal (H2/H5).
• DEMAND: depends on retail/institutional absorption that day; cross-check vs unlock windows and hype cycle.

Tesla Inc · 8-K · 2026-07-02

EDGAR filing · generated 2026-07-02T16:07:31Z

In one line: Operating results or guidance Key size disclosed: ~$12.0B Items filed: Item 2: 02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Item 2: 02 of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as ame; Item 9: 01 Financial …

Everyone

Operating results or guidance

Engineer

Read the exhibit for operational detail (contracts, launches, compute). 8-K body is often legal wrapper; Exhibit 99.1 carries the substance.

Trader

Map filing to next dated catalyst on the calendar before sizing risk.
Next dated supply/demand events on our calendar:
• 2026-08-20: First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float)
• 2026-09-02: Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window ends
• 2026-12-08: Remainder lock-up release (180-day customary expiry)

CFA

Treat as corporate finance or governance signal until quantified in financials.

Elon personally

Issuer filing: affects TSLA capital structure and governance, not necessarily Musk's personal sales today. Cross-check CIK 1494730 Form 4 stream for his moves.

Demand & supply

Demand vs supply (what actually moves the stock):
• Re-read for explicit share count, ATM, secondary, or lock-up language.

Tesla Inc · 10-Q · 2026-07-23

EDGAR filing · generated 2026-07-23T10:28:14Z

In one line: Operating results or guidance Key size disclosed: ~$400.0B Use of proceeds: Use of Proceeds 38 Item 3. Items filed: Item 1: Financial Statements 4 Consolidated Balance Sheets 4 Consolidated Statements of Operations 5 Consolidated Statements of; Item 2: Management's Discussion and…

Everyone

Operating results or guidance

Engineer

Read the exhibit for operational detail (contracts, launches, compute). 8-K body is often legal wrapper; Exhibit 99.1 carries the substance.

Trader

Map filing to next dated catalyst on the calendar before sizing risk.
Next dated supply/demand events on our calendar:
• 2026-08-20: First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float)
• 2026-09-02: Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window ends
• 2026-12-08: Remainder lock-up release (180-day customary expiry)

CFA

Treat as corporate finance or governance signal until quantified in financials.

Elon personally

Issuer filing: affects TSLA capital structure and governance, not necessarily Musk's personal sales today. Cross-check CIK 1494730 Form 4 stream for his moves.

Demand & supply

Demand vs supply (what actually moves the stock):
• Re-read for explicit share count, ATM, secondary, or lock-up language.

Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) · 10-Q · 2026-08-04

EDGAR filing · generated 2026-08-04T21:16:46Z

In one line: Bond offering priced (coupon and maturity set) Key size disclosed: ~$93.5B Use of proceeds: intends to use the net proceeds from the IPO to fund its growth strategy, including the expansion of the Company's AI compute infrastructure, enhancements to the Company's launch infrastru…

Everyone

Bond offering priced (coupon and maturity set)

Engineer

Debt refi event: filing confirms bridge repayment intent. Reduces near-term bank covenant / maturity engineering risk on the ops side.
Infrastructure lens: this issuer runs launch, satellite, and AI compute capex cycles measured in billions. Debt taps public markets; equity supply is still gated by lock-ups in the prospectus.

Trader

Map filing to next dated catalyst on the calendar before sizing risk.
Next dated supply/demand events on our calendar:
• 2026-08-20: First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float)
• 2026-09-02: Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window ends
• 2026-12-08: Remainder lock-up release (180-day customary expiry)

CFA

Treat as corporate finance or governance signal until quantified in financials.
Debt chain context: 2027-09-02 Bridge maturity (refinancing cliff) (~$11.4B outstanding per dossier model).

Elon personally

Map to Musk only if he is reporting person, related party, or control person named in the exhibit.

Demand & supply

Demand vs supply (what actually moves the stock):
• Re-read for explicit share count, ATM, secondary, or lock-up language.

Material dates calendar

Manual catalyst dates plus filing-extracted dates (settlements). Each row includes what it means in plain English. Email reminders fire 7 and 1 days before major supply and debt dates.

Date	Entity	Event · what it means	Type · Tests
2026-06-22past	SpaceX	Senior unsecured notes offering; ~$100.8B cash disclosed The Musk empire thesis is date-driven: hype, listing, lock-ups, refi, and personal sales each have filing-backed timestamps. This date is on	catalyst · H12 bridge repayment
2026-06-26past	SPCX	Bond offering expected settlement (June 26, 2026) This is not new equity hitting the market. It closes the refi chapter: proceeds typically retire the Goldman bridge tied to the Twitter to X	settlement · H12
2026-08-207d	SPCX	First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float) Debt filings fix the balance sheet. Unlock dates change who can sell. This is a direct supply event: more shares can hit the tape even if th	catalyst · H5/H6 scarcity premium test
2026-09-0220d	SPCX	Goldman bridge $175.50 trigger window ends The bridge was the short-dated debt left from the Twitter acquisition chain. Missing this window can mean repricing, extension, or forced re	catalyst · H12 debt / refi timing
2026-12-08 (117d)	SPCX	Remainder lock-up release (180-day customary expiry) Debt filings fix the balance sheet. Unlock dates change who can sell. This is a direct supply event: more shares can hit the tape even if th	catalyst · H5 supply step
2027-06-16 (307d)	SPCX	Musk block unlock (~6.4B shares, largest tranche) Musk's economic stake is gated until these dates. When the block unlocks, the question is not whether he can sell, but whether retail demand	catalyst · H2 exit / H5 supply
2027-09-02 (385d)	SpaceX	Goldman bridge maturity cliff (~$11.4B remaining) If cash and market access are insufficient, the issuer must refinance, renegotiate, or sell assets/equity. At ~$11B+ scale this is an infras	catalyst · H12+H7 debt chain

Dossier timeline evolves over time

Logged reminders and passed catalysts. This is the longitudinal record of how dates played out against the thesis.

Logged	Date	Entity	Event
2026-06-27	2026-06-26	SPCX	date_passed Bond offering expected settlement (June 26, 2026) This is not new equity hitting the market. It closes the refi chapter: proceeds typically retire the Goldman bridge tied to the Twitter to X to xAI relay. After settlement, the story shifts from 'can
2026-06-23	2026-06-26	SPCX	date_outcome [neutral] Bond offering expected settlement (June 26, 2026) Price still at or above IPO after refi settlement; no equity supply added.
2026-06-23	2026-08-20	SPCX	reminder_sent First major lock-up unlock (~7% pool; roughly doubles tradable float) Debt filings fix the balance sheet. Unlock dates change who can sell. This is a direct supply event: more shares can hit the tape even if the company does not issue new stock.
2026-06-23	2026-06-26	SPCX	reminder_sent Bond offering expected settlement (June 26, 2026) This is not new equity hitting the market. It closes the refi chapter: proceeds typically retire the Goldman bridge tied to the Twitter to X to xAI relay. After settlement, the story shifts from 'can
2026-06-23	2026-06-26	SPCX	reminder_sent Bond offering expected settlement (June 26, 2026) This is not new equity hitting the market. It closes the refi chapter: proceeds typically retire the Goldman bridge tied to the Twitter to X to xAI relay. After settlement, the story shifts from 'can

Debt chain: Twitter → X → xAI → SpaceX

The ~$13B Twitter LBO debt was recast through common-control mergers until SpaceX IPO proceeds repaid part of it. The bridge maturing in 2027 is the next infrastructure cliff.

Date	Entity	Event	Debt out
2022-10-27	Twitter	LBO closes; ~$13B acquisition debt loaded	$13.0B
2023-04-01	X	Twitter renamed X; debt carried	$13.0B
2025-03-28	xAI	X folded into xAI (X.AI Holdings)	$13.0B
2026-02-02	SpaceX	xAI(+X) folded into SpaceX; debt recast	$13.0B
2026-03-02	SpaceX	+$20B Goldman bridge loan added	$30.3B
2026-06-15	SpaceX	IPO repays inherited debt	$11.4B
2027-09-02	SpaceX	Bridge maturity (refinancing cliff)	$11.4B

Related parties and channels

Musk rarely acts alone on a Form 4. Value also moves through directors, trusts, lenders, and affiliates listed here.

Party	Role	Flow	Source
Valor / Antonio Gracias	Director + #2 owner + AI compute lessor	~$20B life-of-lease; ~$885M paid FY25	SpaceX (SPCX)
Tesla Inc	Megapacks, vehicles, services to SpaceX	~$778M/yr net to Tesla (2025 proxy)	TSLA DEF 14A
Tesla → xAI	Capital rotation	$2.0B Series E	Tesla / xAI
Goldman Sachs	Bridge lender + IPO underwriter	$20B bridge; matures 2027-09-02	SpaceX debt chain
Musk revocable trust + GRATs	Control + economic extraction	Form 4 sales ~$40B (TSLA); SPCX lock-ups	CIK 1494730

What the bot watches (technical)

Five SEC identities polled on a schedule. Form 4s come from Musk CIK 1494730; issuer filings come from company CIKs.

Entity key	Filings tracked	Last poll
musk	121	2026-08-13T20:49:32
solarcity	66	2026-08-13T20:49:32
spacex	64	2026-08-13T20:49:33
tesla	123	2026-08-13T20:49:32
twitter	38	2026-08-13T20:49:32

Registered parties (v1 scope)

Entity	Ticker	CIK	Kind
Elon Musk (reporting person)		`0001494730`	person
Tesla Inc	TSLA	`0001318605`	issuer
Twitter Inc	TWTR	`0001418091`	issuer
SolarCity Corp	SCTY	`0001408356`	issuer
Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX)	SPCX	`0001181412`	issuer

Recent SEC alerts

Elon Musk (reporting person) SCHEDULE 13G 2026-08-13: SCHEDULE 13G
Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) 8-K 2026-08-04: Material event report
Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) 10-Q 2026-08-04: Quarterly report
Tesla Inc 10-Q 2026-07-23: Quarterly report
Tesla Inc 8-K 2026-07-22: Material event report
Tesla Inc 8-K 2026-07-02: Material event report
Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) 8-K 2026-06-26: Material event report
Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) 8-K 2026-06-23: Material event report