Eigenstate Research · Claim detail cards
Structural predictions
Human-readable cards for early gap predictions: claim text, falsifiable condition, and
Base mainnet commit. Scored outcomes for the full Host register live on Track Record.
Where outcomes are scored: Track Record
holds the Host prediction register (155 claims · 150 open ·
5 resolved) and explains FALSE / VOID / PARTIAL. This page is
the claim-detail surface for the early cards below, not a second scoreboard.
Why publish at all: deadlines make Host claims falsifiable so the engine can score
calibration honesty. Accuracy % waits until assessable n ≥ 5.
Detail cards
3
on this page
Refuted
1
FALSE on Track Record
Void
1
unresolvable as written
Claim cards
ID: INDIA_BANKNIFTY_001 · Logged 2026-04-14
REFUTED NSE BankNifty: 98:1 Settlement Gap at 2-Day Expiry — Tokenized Derivative Structural Fragility
The NSE BankNifty weekly options contract has a gap_ratio of 98:1 with 2 days to expiry at the time of this log. The engine is reading delta_i=10.95 with flag ACTIVE_EXTRACTION on NSE_INDIA. The combination of near-expiry timing, maximum extraction flag, and 98:1 settlement gap means the BankNifty expiry event is the highest-pressure Indian market signal in the current engine cycle. A settlement anomaly at this expiry — or SEBI acknowledgment of the structural gap in tokenized derivative settlement — is the predicted outcome.
Falsifiable Condition
NSE BankNifty expiry event produces a settlement anomaly (failed settlement, delayed margin call resolution, or circuit-breaker trigger attributable to settlement gap) OR SEBI publishes acknowledgment of tokenized derivative settlement gap within 60 days of this log date (2026-04-14).
Curl Confirmed
DETECTOR FLAG
On-chain proof (Base mainnet, logged before publication)
Committed At
2026-04-14 03:28 UTC
Vault Fingerprint
913aab95f15701a8
Overlay Entities
NSE_INDIA, SEBI
ID: LIBOR_EQUIVALENT_001 · Logged 2026-04-13
PENDING $300 Trillion Structural Gap: SOFR Transition Left No Model
The LIBOR/SOFR transition did not resolve the underlying benchmark fragility. The $300T derivatives market settles against SOFR using ISDA fallback protocol with no sovereign-backed rate model. This gap (ratio 300:1 against daily interbank volume) will surface as a pricing dislocation event during the next liquidity contraction.
Falsifiable Condition
A SOFR-referenced instrument misprices or fails settlement during a liquidity stress event, triggering ISDA fallback invocation at scale. Alternatively: regulatory acknowledgment of the benchmark gap by FSOC, FSB, or BIS in a published report.
On-chain proof (Base mainnet, logged before publication)
Committed At
2026-04-13 17:15 UTC
Vault Fingerprint
a918a01b73e077eb
Overlay Entities
FED, BLACKROCK, ONDO, SEC
How this relates to Track Record
These cards are gap-level claim prose with on-chain commit timestamps. The
Track Record page is the scored Host register:
deadlines, TRUE/FALSE/VOID/PARTIAL outcomes, thin-n accuracy rules, and live engine
SoT (PT, κ, M1) labeled separately from prediction outcomes.
FALSE means the claim failed its resolution criteria by deadline. VOID means the
claim could not be scored as written. See Track Record for the three resolved Host
closes and the full open count.
For agents (machine JSON)
Prefer human pages above. Machine endpoints are secondary.