Verifiable Host claims with deadlines, scored when the window closes. This page is a
public falsifiability register for Protocol Truth honesty, not a finished accuracy
brochure.
Why this page exists
Predictions are Host claims with deadlines so the engine can score
calibration and Protocol Truth honesty. Publishing them makes the board falsifiable
in public. Most rows are still open: 150 of 155 Host predictions
have not resolved yet. The board is a register, not a completed
track record.
Accuracy percent is gated at assessable n ≥ 5 so a thin sample cannot fake 100%.
Right now: 2 TRUE / 1 FALSE · assessable n too thin for a %.
How to read outcomes
FALSE
The claim failed its resolution criteria by the deadline. No spin.
VOID
The claim could not be scored as written (broken presupposition or unresolvable
leg). Excluded from assessable TRUE/FALSE n.
PARTIAL
At least one leg resolved and at least one leg remains open or untestable. Not
a single TRUE/FALSE; excluded from assessable n.
OPEN
Deadline has not produced a Host-executed close yet.
Assessable scoreboard
Assessable
n=3
2 TRUE / 1 FALSE · assessable n too thin for a %
Host register
155
150 open · 5 resolved
Assessable means resolved with a TRUE or FALSE outcome only. VOID and PARTIAL do
not enter the percentage numerator or denominator.
The Fed would either implement an emergency rate cut (50+ bps off-cycle) or expand its balance sheet above $6T before 2026-07-13.
VOID (not FALSE): the rate leg was FALSE (no off-cycle cut of 50+ bps in window). The balance-sheet leg was VOID because the H.4.1 baseline at emission was already $6.714T, so "expand above $6T" presupposed a sub-$6T baseline that did not exist. Unresolvable as written; calibration weight none.
A settlement-gap event on NSE involving a ~98:1 cleared-positions-to-capacity ratio (or SEBI acknowledgment of that structural gap) would surface by 2026-06-13.
FALSE: by the 2026-06-13 deadline, no new NSE/SEBI publication in the emission-to-deadline window named a matching ~98:1 settlement-gap event. Jane Street/SEBI material from 2025 predates emission, so it does not count as the predicted surfacing. An NSDL Feb 2026 settlement delay lacked the ratio leg.
Meta Family advertising revenue per December Family DAP would stay a stable transport coefficient (|YoY change| under 15% for 2023→2024 and 2024→2025), with cross-platform and FY2026 legs.
RESOLVED_PARTIAL: the stable-transport leg failed (2023→2024 Δr = +15.93%, at/above the 15% threshold). Cross-platform was untestable. The FY2026 prospective leg stays open until 2027-02-28. Not in assessable TRUE/FALSE n because there is no single TRUE or FALSE outcome.
Deadline 2026-08-17 ·
Resolved 2026-08-18 ·
Calibration weight capital
Outcome recorded in SoT scoreboard. See Host prediction register for the
resolution record.
Open claims
150 open
Of 155 Host predictions in the register, 150 remain open and
5 have a Host-executed close (including VOID and PARTIAL). Early
gap-prediction claim cards (human prose + on-chain commit) live on the
Predictions page. The full
scored register is this Track Record surface, rebuilt from engine SoT.
Why we publish predictions
Method (scoreboard rules)
01
Falsifiability first. Each Host claim names an observable
condition and a deadline. The point is calibration honesty for Protocol Truth,
not marketing win-rate theater.
02
Thin-n gate. Accuracy % appears only when assessable n ≥ 5
(TRUE/FALSE only; VOID excluded). Below that threshold we show raw counts so a
sample of one cannot read as 0% or 100% certainty.
03
Register, not finished ledger. 150 claims are still
open. Resolved rows here are Host-executed closes from the prediction register
stamped into field-state.json.
04
Field metrics are separate. PT, κ, and M1 coverage describe
engine measurement state. They are not prediction outcomes. Φ_S is settlement
pressure (E = ΔI / A), not INFRA_FLOW volume.